Brazoria, Wednesday, September 21, 9:00 am

NEAL: Well, it now looks like Houston will have to evacuate too.   Jim Cantore says a direct Cat-4 hit on Houston looks like "600,000 lost houses."

But KPRC-TV (our local NBC affil) says that parts of Houston don't have to evacuate, and even recommends not evacuating in order to avoid further congestion. Ann notes:

ANN: I've been watching the Channel 2 coverage and they had a veryinformative session with the weather dude and the Harris County Emergency coordinator. They kept stressing that people not in the storm surge zones would probably be better off sheltering in their houses — "run from the water, hide from the wind". They said to make your house as secure as you can then retreat to an interior area - such as your hallway - and ride it out. You would need water, water in the bathtub maybe for flushing purposes, batteries and flashlights, energy bar kinds of food that won't spoil. And take in all the outdoor stuff - all the plants, the picnic table probably.

NEAL: Sarah and Clint live in the northwest part of Houston, where evacuation is not recommended.

In any case, here in the Brazosport area mandatory evacuation begins today.

MAPS:

• Area road map
• Brazoria road map
• Brazoria topo map

Note that the elevation at our property (the red "+") is 21 feet AMSL, which means we could sustain a 20-foot storm surge without damage.   But we're also close to the Brazos River, and heavy upstream rainfall, combined with a storm surge, could cause local flooding.